COVID cases and hospitalizations increase as wastewater shows tripled concentrations
ALBANY COUNTY — Three months after the World Health Organization said COVID-19 no longer qualified as a global emergency, it has designated EG.5, a sublineage of Omicron, as a “variant of interest.”
That is a step below a “variant of concern” such as Delta and Omicron.
At the same time, hospital admissions have been rising statewide although they are still low compared to the surges in 2020, 2021, and 2022.
“The latest data, from August 2, shows hospital admissions increased 22% compared with the previous week and are now at 0.6 per 100,000 residents on average, which translates to more than 100 admissions per day,” said a release from the state’s health department early this month.
Reported cases are also 55 percent higher than the previous week, for an average of 824 reported cases per day across the state, the department said, adding, “However, it’s important to note that most cases are not reported, so hospitalizations are a more reliable indicator. There are currently no concerns with hospital bed capacity.”
“COVID tests are easy to use as well as highly accurate. If you test positive, speak with a health care provider about treatment, which can prevent hospitalization and death,” said Health Commissioner James McDonald in a statement.
EG.5
EG.5 was first documented in February in Indonesia and, by estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, is now the dominant sublineage in the United States, at 17.3 percent of new cases.
In our region, which includes New York, New Jersey, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands, the dominant sublineage is the fast-growing FL.1.5.1 at 20. 7 percent followed by EG.5 at 16 percent — after which are several sublineages of the once-dominant XBB.
In New York state, according to the state’s health department, for samples of the virus collected between July 16 and 29, the most recent reported data, the dominant sublineage was XBB.1.9 at about 43 percent followed by XBB.1.16 at about 27 percent, XBB.1.5 at about 17 percent, and XBB at about 12 percent. Percentages for all of the other lineages were less than 2 percent.
A study from the University of Tokyo, which has not yet been peer reviewed, finds that EG.5 is about 20 percent more contagious than XBB lineages, first documented in the fall of 2022, from which EG.5 descended.
“While EG.5 has shown increased prevalence, growth advantage, and immune escape properties, there have been no reported changes in disease severity to date,” says the WHO’s Aug. 9 risk evaluation of EG.5.
As of Aug. 7, WHO reports, 7,354 sequences of EG.5 from 51 countries have been submitted to GISAID (Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data), the repository for labs conducting genomic sequencing to share their data on the virus that causes COVID-19.
The largest portion of EG.5 sequences are from China at 30.6 percent or 2,247 sequences. The other countries with at least 100 sequences are the United States at about 18 percent, the Republic of Korea at about 14 percent, Japan at about 11 percent, and Canada at about 5 percent. Also, Australia, Singapore, the United Kingdom, France, Portugal, and Spain each at about 2 percent or under.
“Globally, there has been a steady increase in the proportion of EG.5 reported,” says WHO.
Hospital admissions
Nationally, hospitalizations for COVID-19 have risen with the CDC reporting an increase of admissions of 14.3 percent over the week before, and an increase in deaths of 10 percent from the prior week.
Albany County, like the rest of the counties in New York state, the CDC reports, has had fewer than 10 hospital admissions for COVID-19 per 100,000 of population.
In the past week, the southern part of the United States — particularly Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana — has had more positive testing for COVID-19 recently than the northern part of the country.
More than three years after WHO declared a public health emergency of international concern, it said in May that the virus “is now an established and ongoing health issue which no longer constitutes a public health emergency of international concern” and advised transitioning “to long-term management of the COVID-19 pandemic.”
Also in May, the COVID-19 public health emergency declared by the Trump administration in 2020 — and extended several times since — ended.
Albany County
With the ending of mandatory reporting of positive COVID-19 tests, it is hard to track the spread of the virus. However, testing wastewater for fragments of the virus can predict infection rates.
Since the end of June, the concentration of virus present in wastewater samples across the nation has tripled.
A statewide network in New York is being used to identify fragments of the virus in wastewater. In Albany County, four treatment facilities participate:
— The North Plant sewershed that serves Cohoes, Guilderland, the town of Colonie, the village of Colonie, Green Island, Watervliet, and the North End of the city of Albany;
— The South Plant sewershed that serves the majority of the city of Albany;
— The Town of Bethlehem Plant that serves the majority of the town of Bethlehem; and
— The Town of Guilderland Plant serves the majority of the town of Guilderland.
According to the most recent report on Albany County’s wastewater surveillance, covering the two-week period from July 10 to July 24, the trends show an increase from the North Plant, the South Plant, and the Town of Guilderland Plant while showing a decrease for the Town of Bethlehem Plant.
The most recent samples for the three increasing plants were higher when compared to New York state values. The most recent sample from Bethlehm was lower compared to state values.
The level of the virus RNA “can tell us roughly how many cases can be expected in a population,” the report says. For Albany’s North Plant, the detection level suggests a daily case incidence of 10 to 50 cases per 100,000 people. The same is true for the Bethlehem plant.
Albany’s South Plant and Guilderland’s facility each had a detection level suggesting more than 50 cases per 100,000 people, the report says.
Albany County, throughout the emergency, listed data on its website regarding patients hospitalized with COVID-19, and deaths caused by the virus. It no longer does so.
The week of May 10, the county’s 165th of dealing with COVID and the week the national emergency ended, the county site reported 630 fatalities — 305 men and 327 women — from COVID-19.
The county, now in its 179th week of dealing with the virus, still advises on its website that residents stay up to date with vaccines. A booster shot is to be released in the fall, which was developed to target the XBB sublineage.
The numbers for vaccination in Albany County have hardly budged since May. The state’s dashboard now reports on these two categories:
— People with a primary series, for those who have completed the recommended initial series of a given COVID-19 vaccine product — two doses of Pfizer or Moderna vaccine or one dose of Johnson & Johnson vaccine; and
— People who are up to date, for those who have completed all COVID-19 vaccinations, including the bivalent booster, as appropriate per age and clinical recommendations.
As of Tuesday, 23.8 percent percent of Albany County residents were up to date on vaccines, a gradual increase from 17.9 in February.
At the same time, 76.6 percent of county residents have completed a primary series, up slightly from 76.3 percent in May.
This compares with 76.9 percent of New Yorkers statewide completing a vaccination series, and 15.4 percent being up to date with vaccinations, up from 10.6 percent in February.
Some experts have estimated that vaccinating Americans of all ages could reduce the number of hospitalizations and deaths by 20 percent.