Air thick with tiny particles from wildfires in Canada is returning to New York State. The fires are still raging.

Wildfire smoke downwind affects not just health but also wealth and mortality, according to new research from Cornell University, Nanjing University, and the University of Houston, published earlier this month.

On Tuesday afternoon though, the focus in New York was on immediate health as James McDonald,  the state’s health commissioner, advised New Yorkers to use two “important tools” in the days ahead if air quality is again threatened.

“If you have to go out, wear an N95 mask,” he advised. The governor on Tuesday said that hundreds of thousands of the masks will be made available — in New York City at major transit hubs and to upstate counties from state-run stockpiles.

Second, McDonald held up his own cell phone to show an app he advised installing — AirNow.gov — that gives users an instant update of air quality in their area.

“We went through this on June 6, 7, 8,” said McDonald, speculating that the next few days could be similar.

During Tuesday’s online press conference, McDonald explained in simple terms how infinitesimal particulate matter, PM2.5, is not filtered out by our noses like bigger particles. “It goes down our windpipe into our lungs,” he said. “It can cause inflammation. It can cause infection.” 

This can create problems for people with asthma, with chronic obstructive lung disease, or with heart disease, he said. Last time, in mid-June, he said, there was “a small spike of people going to the emergency department.”

Tuesday afternoon’s online press conference started with Basil Seggos, commissioner for the Department of Environmental Conservation, giving an overview of  the situation.

“We know the smoke is coming our way,” he said. “It’s best to take it seriously.”

He also said, “We expect a statewide event.”

The two commissioners had already issued advisories for Wednesday, citing Western New York as having an “unhealthy” air quality; Central New York and Eastern Lake Ontario as “unhealthy for sensitive groups,” and the rest of the state as “moderate.”

The Air Quality Index was created as an easy way to correlate levels of different pollutants to one scale, with a higher AQI value indicating a greater health concern.

McDonald said that New Yorkers were used to “pristine” air, with an AQI under 50. Moderate has an AQI of 51 to 100; unhealthy for sensitive groups, from 101 to 150; unhealthy, from 151 to 200; very unhealthy from 201 to 300; and hazardous from 301 to 500.

Describing the situation in Canada that is causing the hazy air, Seggos said, “More than 2,700 fires have thus far burnt this year. That’s 14.7 million acres of land.”

“That’s a record,” he said, about 15 times the normal amount burned by this time of year. “There are still 330 active fires. About 78 of them are uncontrolled. These are large multi-thousand-acre fires.”

Seggos said some rain is now in the forecast for parts of Québec, which may help the situation. Here in New York state, he said on Tuesday, “The rain has kept the smoke largely at bay for the last two days.”

That was expected to change on Wednesday as a cold front enters Western New York from the northeast, reaching downstate by Wednesday evening.

“The winds, as part of this cold front, are expected to bring significant smoke from the upper midwest into New York state.”

Although the forecast “is less than certain,” Seggos said, “We are expecting the smoke to move into the Hudson Valley and potentially downstate into the New York City metro area and Long Island.

“We certainly expect that smoke to continue its march through New York state … We expect most of upstate to be in the ‘unhealthy’ or ‘unhealthy for sensitive groups’ range on Thursday.”

Governor Kathy Hochul has directed the State Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Services to alert impacted communities via the Wireless Emergency Alert System in the event ‘very unhealthy’ or ‘hazardous’ levels are reached, according to a release from the governor’s office.

Additionally, transportation agencies and authorities have been directed to provide warnings on public transportation and on variable message signs along roadways.

“Summer camp directors should know their local AQI forecast and alert level,” the release said, and follow guidance from the state’s health department and the United States Environmental Protection Agency AQI guidance.

Long-term effects

Earlier this month, a paper published in Science of the Total Environment, “Quantifying the premature mortality and economic loss from wildfire-induced PM2.5 in the contiguous U.S.,” found not only that emissions from wildfires worsen air quality and can adversely impact human health but quantified economic losses as well as rates of premature deaths caused by the emissions.

The study used data from 2012 to 2014 and concluded, “Results indicated that wildfires could lead annually to 4000 cases of premature mortality in the U.S., corresponding to $36 billion losses.”

Regions with high concentrations of fire-induced PM2.5 were in the west — for example, Idaho, Montana, and northern California — and in the Southeast: for example, Alabama, and Georgia.

Metropolitan areas located near fire sources exhibited large health burdens, such as Los Angeles with 119 premature deaths, corresponding to $1.07 billion; Atlanta with 76 premature deaths, corresponding to $0.69 billion, and Houston with 65 premature deaths, corresponding to $0.58 billion.

Regions in the downwind of western fires, although experiencing relatively low values of fire-induced PM2.5, showed notable health burdens due to their large population, such as metropolitan areas of New York (with 86 premature deaths, corresponding to $0.78 billion), Chicago (with 60 premature deaths, corresponding to $0.54 billion), and Pittsburgh (with 32 premature deaths, corresponding to $0.29 billion). 

“Results suggest that impacts from wildfires are substantial, and to mitigate these impacts, better forest management and more resilient infrastructure would be needed,” the study says.

In a June 20 Cornell Chronicle story about the study by Blaine Friedlander, Friedlander interviewed Oliver Gao, a Cornell professor and senior author on the study, who said, “Climate change is leading to weather extremes like more storms and hurricanes, but it can also lead to more wildfires. The Quebec wildfires in early June affected human health hundreds of miles away in the distant cities New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington.”

Gao also said that laws and regulations — such as planned events to thin forests — could reduce and mitigate the harmful effects of wildfires.

The Albany Pine Bush Preserve in Albany County has just drafted an update to its fire-management plan after using prescribed burns for more than three decades.

“Wildfire affects our health,” Gao told Friedlander. “In this era of climate change, if we remove flammable vegetation and do things like create green fire breaks and reduce the fuel for the fires, we can substantially decrease the harm of smoke downwind in populated areas.”

Friedlander also interviewed the study’s first author, Shuai Pan, who said, “In addition to law and regulations, local policies and guidance are also important to reduce wildfire risk and to protect health from the adverse health effects of exposure.”