Week CLIV: Comptroller cautions local governments that growth may level off

— Graph from NYS Comptroller’s Office
Local sales-tax collections are still above pre-pandemic levels.

ALBANY COUNTY — Numbers on sales-tax collections continued to increase while numbers on COVID-19 infections continued to decrease this week.

On Feb. 17, the state’s comptroller, Thomas DiNapoli, released an analysis showing local sales-tax collections in New York state increased by 9.2 percent in January compared to the same month in 2022.

Overall, local collections totaled $1.89 billion, up $159 million compared to the same time last year.

“As we head into a new year, local sales tax growth remains quite strong,” DiNapoli said in a release, announcing the upturn. “Consumer spending and a strong labor market have buoyed sales tax growth even as prices remain elevated.”

However, he also warned, “Local governments should budget cautiously as this growth may level off sooner than they expect.”

An earlier report from the comptroller’s office, looking at all of 2022, said, “Local government sales tax collections in New York State totaled $22.1 billion in calendar year 2022, up 12.7 percent, or $2.5 billion, compared to 2021.”

The double-digit growth, it said, was reflective of strong sales statewide, and follows collections in 2021 that had already exceeded pre-pandemic amounts.

Albany County jumped 10.6 percent in local sales-tax collections, going from $322.3 million in 2021 to $356.4 million in 2022.

The Feb. 17 analysis shows sales-tax collections for Albany County increasing by 11.6 percent from January 2022 to January 2023 — going from $27.3 million to $30.55 million.

New York state had been withholding a portion of sales-tax collections from counties and New York City for various purposes over the prior few years. But these withholdings stopped or were reduced in the State Fiscal Year 2022-23 Budget.

Every county experienced some year-over-year growth in January collections, with Delaware County seeing the largest increase at 26 percent, followed by Schenectady County at 24.1 percent and Cayuga County at 20.6 percent. Onondaga County had the lowest growth at 0.6 percent.

 

Albany County COVID numbers

This week, Albany County’s 154th of dealing with COVID, numbers are continuing in the right direction with fewer new cases documented. The same is true statewide and nationwide.

No new COVID-related deaths in Albany County were reported this week by the governor’s office, for the first time in 11 months.

The county’s dashboard, as of Tuesday, Feb. 21, showed a death toll of 619: 300 males and 319 females — one more male than last week.

Also this week, Albany County’s designation by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has remained at a “medium” community level of COVID-19 after being labeled “high” four weeks ago.

The county had been designated “medium” by the CDC for the four weeks prior to the “high” designation, which followed two weeks of a “low” designation. That was preceded by four weeks of being labeled “medium” after 13 weeks of being labeled “high.”

All of the counties in New York State are now designated as either “low” or “medium.” All of the counties surrounding Albany are designated “medium” except for Greene County, which is labeled “low.”

Nationwide, similar to last week, only 3 percent of counties are labeled “high” while 20 percent are “medium,” and the great majority — 77 percent — are labeled “low.”

The weekly metrics the CDC used to determine the current “medium” level for Albany County are:

— Albany County now has a case rate of about 77 per 100,000 of population, a drastic drop from last week’s 94, down from 99 two weeks ago, 102 three weeks ago, 120 four weeks ago, and 107 five weeks ago but almost the same as 79 five weeks ago;

— For the important COVID hospital admission rate, Albany County has a rate of 17.4 per 100,000, down from 18.6 last week but up from 15.4 two weeks ago and 16.4 three weeks ago, but down from 22.2 four weeks ago, although higher than 16 five weeks ago; and

— Albany County now has 5.9 percent of its staffed hospital beds filled with COVID patients, down from 6.4 last week but up from 5.6 two weeks ago, although down from the percentages for the previous seven weeks, which ranged from 6 to 8; 

As of Feb. 21, according to Albany County’s COVID dashboard, 31 patients were hospitalized with COVID, in the same range as for the last three weeks but down from 42 five weeks ago, 43 six weeks ago, and 46 seven weeks ago.

About 42 percent of the Capital Region residents hospitalized with COVID this week were not admitted because of having the virus, according to a chart from the governor’s office.

In New York State, according to the health department’s most recent figures, for samples collected between Jan. 29 and Feb. 11, the Omicron variant made up 99 percent of new cases, down from 100 percent from the previous set of samples, collected from Jan. 15 to 28.

The Omicron sublineage XBB.1.5 dominates at 86 percent, up from 75 percent in the previous two-week period, and 39 percent in the fortnight before that; 4 percent were XBB while another 4 percent were BQ.1.1,  and 3 percent were BQ.1, and 2 percent were BA.5, while 0 percent were BA.4.

Nationwide, according to the CDC, from Feb. 12 to 18, the XBB.1.5 sublineage made up 80 percent of new cases, steadily rising from 49 percent four weeks ago, followed by BQ.1.1 at 12 percent and BQ.1 at 4 percent — both in decline.

Also, CH.1.1 has made its first appearance at 1.2 percent of new cases nationwide.

A not-yet-peer-reviewed paper from Ohio State University, posted last month, says that CH.1.1 has “a consistently stronger neutralization resistance available than XBB, XBB.1 and XBB.1.5, which is astonishing and warrants continuous monitoring and further investigations.”

The researchers created CH.1.1 in a laboratory and tested it against blood taken from 14 health-care workers who had gotten two and four doses of monovalent vaccine, as well as the bivalent vaccine aimed at Omicron and its sublineages. The study reported that the workers’ blood generated 17 times fewer antibodies against CH.1.1 as they did against BA.4 and BA.5.

Last month, in the United Kingdom, CH.1.1 made up 28 percent of new infections.

Meanwhile, in our region, which includes New York, New Jersey, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, a whopping 97 percent of new cases are caused by the XBB.1.5 sublineage of Omicron, a still-growing percentage, followed by BQ.1.1 at 2 percent and BQ.1 at 1 percent.

CH.1.1 is listed at just 0.2 percent of new cases in our region; it is not listed at all in the statewide report from the New York State Department of Health.

Although figures on infection rates are no longer reliable since tracing and tracking systems have been disbanded, the state dashboard shows that cases in Albany County as well as statewide have continued to decline in recent weeks.

Seven weeks ago, rates for both the state and county had jumped after having leveled off in November following two months of climbing.

Albany County, as a seven-day average, has 11.0 cases per 100,000 of population, the same as last week, but down from 13.9 two weeks ago, 13.6 three weeks ago, 14.7 four weeks ago, 16.2 five weeks ago, 24.4 six weeks ago, 12.4 seven weeks ago, and 12.0 eight weeks ago, but slightly higher than 10.9 nine weeks ago.

Numbers hovered between 8 and 11 before that, which was a fairly steady decrease from 21.8 cases per 100,000 twenty-five weeks ago.

This compares with 11.1 cases per 100,000 statewide, down from rates over the last month in the twenties following a fairly steady decrease from 30.03 per 100,000 of population five months ago.

The lowest rates are in places that once were hotspots: New York City has the lowest rate at 9.5 cases per 100,000 of population.

The highest count is in the North Country at 15.3 per 100,000 of population, down slightly from last week’s rate of 15.5.

The numbers for vaccination in Albany County have hardly budged for several months. The state’s dashboard now reports on these two categories:

— People with a primary series, for those who have completed the recommended initial series of a given COVID-19 vaccine product — two doses of Pfizer or Moderna vaccine or one dose of Johnson & Johnson vaccine; and

— People who are up to date, for those who have completed all COVID-19 vaccinations, including the bivalent booster, as appropriate per age and clinical recommendations.

As of Tuesday, 21.2 percent percent of Albany County residents were up to date on vaccines, a gradual increase from 17.9 ten weeks ago, as opposed to the 61.5 percent of eligible residents who had received booster shots, as reported in prior weeks.

At the same time, 76.2 percent of county residents have completed a primary series, nearly the same as the last several weeks.

This compares with 76.4 percent of New Yorkers statewide completing a vaccination series, and 13.8 percent being up to date with vaccinations, up from 10.6 ten weeks ago.

New Yorkers are being encouraged by the state’s health department to get bivalent COVID-19 vaccine boosters from Pfizer-BioNTech for anyone age 5 or older and from Moderna for those 6 or older.

To schedule an appointment for a booster, New Yorkers are to contact their local pharmacy, county health department, or healthcare provider; visit vaccines.gov; text their ZIP code to 438829, or call 1-800-232-0233 to find nearby locations.

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