Week XXXV: ‘New York is a ship on the COVID tide,’ says gov, and Albany County is riding the wave

The Enterprise — Michael Koff

“Act as if you have COVID,” Albany County Health Commissioner Elizabeth Whalen advised residents on Wednesday as the number of local cases reached new heights.

ALBANY COUNTY — On the day the nation set a record for new COVID-19 cases, so did Albany County. Also on Wednesday, the governor imposed new statewide restrictions — on bars and restaurants, on gyms, and on gatherings — for the first time since they were lifted, region by region, in the spring and summer.

Throughout Albany County’s 35th week of battling the virus, officials at multiple press conferences implored and admonished residents to follow the simple seven-month-old directives of washing hands, wearing masks, not gathering, and staying six feet from others.

“We are going in the wrong direction,” said Albany County Executive last Thursday.

“It’s time to start doubling down on preventative measures,” said the county’s health commissioner, Elizabeth Wahlen, at the same press briefing.

And yet, on Wednesday morning, McCoy announced 99 new COVID-19 cases — “the highest we’ve ever had,” he said.

The earlier peak had been 94 cases on April 30.

Also during the week, two more Albany County residents died of the virus, bringing the county’s COVID-19 death toll to 144. A woman in her nineties died on Thursday, and a woman in her sixties died on Saturday.

Albany County on Wednesday also had the most residents ever under quarantine: 1,492. The highest number previously had been on May 5 with 1,107 under quarantine.

Hospitalization rates are also soaring with 35 county residents currently hospitalized with the virus. “April 20 was the last time we had this many people hospitalized,” said McCoy.

The county’s five-day average for new positive cases also reached a peak, at 66.

“Our numbers continue to go up in every category …,” said McCoy.

He repeated the phrase he used all week: “Please help us, help you.”

The high numbers that Albany County reached in the spring, in all those categories, were brought under control with a state-ordered shutdown, which flattened the curve.

“I’m not recommending shutting down ..,” said McCoy on Wednesday. “We won’t have to shut down if people do the right thing.”

The state is now using a new approach — tamping down on micro-clusters. Places with high rates of infection, termed red zones, have schools and nonessential businesses closed. Orange zones have lesser restrictions, and outlying yellow zones lesser restrictions still.

Throughout the week, Governor Andrew Cuomo cited data from Johns Hopkins that showed New York State had the third lowest infection rate in the country after more rural Vermont and Maine.

He called the fall a new phase, predicted by scientists — with schools starting and more people indoors — to increase the spread of the virus.

Last Friday, Cuomo commented during a conference call with reporters, “In general, downstate New York is doing better than upstate New York, which is a total reversal from the first phase of COVID, where it was primarily a downstate problem.”

He stopped referring to the 1-percent infection rate he had used as a target over the summer and instead referred to the 5-percent infection rate set by the World Health Organization as the threshold below which businesses and schools could be open.

On Wednesday, based on Tuesday’s test results, all 10 of the state’s regions once again had infection rates of over 1 percent. The Capital Region, of which Albany County is a part, was the lowest at 1.2 percent.

The positivity rate in the micro-cluster zones was 4.9 percent; statewide, the rate was 2.9 percent.

On Wednesday, in a conference call with reporters, Cuomo said, “What we’re seeing is what they predicted for months … The scientists all predicted. We’re seeing a national and global COVID surge, and New York is a ship on the COVID tide, right … Today, we’ve seen the country set a new record in terms of COVID cases, believe it or not. Record established on April 15th. So it is really getting much, much worse by the day. “

Cuomo noted the higher infection rates in neighboring states and said that New York State’s micro-clusters are occurring near those states — for example, in New York’s Southern Tier, which is near Pennsylvania with an infection rate of about 15 percent.

 Other micro-cluster zones are on Staten Island near New Jersey and in Port Chester near Connecticut. New York’s original micro-clusters were in Queens and Brooklyn in New York City and in Orange and Rockland counties.

The zones are over-tested and as numbers improve restrictions are lessened.

New state restrictions

Cuomo announced on Wednesday that, in harmony with neighboring states, New York is imposing statewide restrictions on bars and restaurants, on gyms, and on small gatherings — which cannot exceed 10 people.

The new restrictions go into  effect on Friday at 10 p.m.

Cuomo reiterated his approach of controlling the spread of the virus, which he says is not like flipping a light switch but rather like turning a valve.

“You look at the trajectory, you know where it’s going,” he said on his Wednesday conference call. “And it is going up and we have always been good at staying ahead of COVID and this is the calibration that we’ve talked about: Increase economic activity, watch the positivity rate, positivity rate starts to go up, back off on the economic activity … It was never binary, economic activity or public health. It was always both.”

Bars and restaurants licensed by the State Liquor Authority will have to close at 10 p.m.; after that, restaurants can do food-only curbside pickup.

“Gyms are also an identified spreading element,” said Cuomo. They will have to close at 10 p.m.

Parties, Cuomo said, are also “one of the three great spreaders as identified by our contact tracing.”

No more than 10 people will be allowed to gather at a house party, said Cuomo.

These new restrictions appear to reflect research published Tuesday in the journal Nature based on cell-phone mobility data tracked, from March to May, in Atlanta; Chicago; Dallas; Houston; Los Angeles; Miami; New York; Philadelphia; San Francisco; and Washington, D.C.

The study found that crowded indoor venues, like gyms and especially restaurants, accounted for about 80 percent of coronavirus infections.

The restriction on gatherings follows spikes from Hallween parties and comes just before Thanksgiving. McCoy has urged people to see extended family through Zoom as his own family is doing for Thanksgiving.

In his conference call with reporters on Wednesday, Cuomo stressed the importance of “individual discipline and government enforcement.”

“You can make the rules, but the rules are only as good as the enforcement,” he said, restating a message he has made for months.

On Tuesday, at an Albany County press briefing, McCoy was asked if punitive measures would be taken against organizers of a recent basketball tournament in Cohoes where spectators, many without masks, were closely pressed together.

“We’re not looking to fine people …,” said McCoy. “It’s not just the organizer. It’s the parents, too.”

Stressing the science

“We are seeing a disturbing rise in the number of cases ...,” Whalen said at Wednesday morning’s press briefing. “The amount of testing that we’re currently doing cannot explain this alone. It is obvious from our investigations and our numbers that there is likely a bigger risk in the community and that there is community spread.”

At Tuesday’s press briefing, Whalen had said, “We could have stopped this in the beginning if people had listened to this advice. Viruses need hosts; they need somebody to infect. If you stop the train of transmission, the virus has nowhere to go. This country has done a poor job of stopping this transmission.”

While the state has adopted an approach of tamping down on micro-clusters, Whalen said that her department regularly deals with “micro-micro-clusters” of perhaps two or three infections. Those schools or businesses have then closed voluntarily.

“We’ve been doing that since the beginning,” said Whalen.

She noted that someone infected with COVID-19 spreads the disease for two days before symptoms appear. “You spread this virus before you know you have it,” she said.

She also noted that, on average, every person with COVID-19 infects two to three people. “We might see even more than that of late,” said Whalen.

“That is why testing is essential,” Whalen stressed. “If we don’t know where it is, we can’t control it.”

On Wednesday, Whalen advised residents, “Act as if you have COVID.”

As she again stressed the importance of wearing a mask, Whalen noted that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had advised on Tuesday that “masks not only protect others but also protect you.”

She again urged parents to have their children tested for COVID-19 if they are exposed to someone with the virus or if they have symptoms, even mild ones, of fever or coughing.

And, again, Whalen went over the two broad categories for tests. Rapid tests, which can be either antigen-based or molecular, are useful for screening, she said, but, if someone has symptoms, they can get a false negative.

PCR, or polymerase chain reaction laboratory tests, detect genetic material from the virus and form a reliable basis for diagnosis.

If symptoms persist, even after a negative PCR test, Whalen said, the patient should get retested.

On Wednesday, Whalen reiterated the advice she had given in the spring, “Stay home to save a life.”

McCoy noted that county workers have returned to staggered shifts and, when possible, are working from home. He urged businesses to do the same.

Both McCoy and Whalen stressed the importance of being honest with contact tracers from the health department. McCoy cited New Jersey’s health commissioner as stating that 60 percent of people lie when it comes to tracing.

Whalen speculated why people lie about where or from whom they might have caught the virus: “I think it’s convenience and I think it’s fear,” she said. It’s inconvenient to stay home for 14 days, she said, adding, “People are afraid they’ll implicate their friend or neighbor. No one is getting in trouble here. It’s really about the greater good.”

She also said, of the necessity of adhering to a 14-day quarantine — the length of the virus’s incubation period — if exposed: “This is individual responsibility. This is civic responsibility.”

Noting that it was Veterans Day, Whalen concluded, “These are not big sacrifices. Please do your duty … Be forthcoming with information and help us help the community.”

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